Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Oct 2015

EV Growth in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground

According to data from the Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong, as of 31st October 2015, the total number of registered EV in Hong Kong is 3126, an increase of 352 since September. This has broken the record of 332 set in December 2014 by 30 more EVs. The total number of registered private EV is 2869, an increase of 355 since September. The percentage for total EV per new car is 12.87%. Mean is at 157.9 and Standard deviation at 90.2 since Tesla Model S launch.

Very encouraging numbers, but the best is yet to come.

Provisional number for the total number of registered EV is 3693 in November, and 4198 in December, an increase of 567 and 505 respectively from previous month.

If the final data is anywhere close to 500 then we could be seeing two or three record-breaking months in a row!!!

My conservative prediction of Tesla Model S contribution to the total number of EVs in Hong Kong has been upward adjusted from 70% to 75% since my last one*. This estimate already excludes the 340 EVs before Model S arrives in Hong Kong, with the assumption that the number of Tesla Roadster sold is negligible. That means as of today, the total number of Tesla Model S could have reached 3149.

(Updated 15 Feb 2016)
(*75% upward adjustment for December will be reverted to 70% due to Tesla Hong Kong's latest release of actual 2015 sales numbers of 2,221 on 25th Janurary 2016 at Tesla's Special Event in Hong Kong. As of 31 December 2015, the total number of Tesla Model S in Hong Kong could be 2,939.)

Having mentioned the above, the total number of registered vehicles in Hong Kong in October 2015 has reached 785,841, which means that EVs only constitutes 0.40% (=2869/785,841 x 100%) of the entire vehicle fleet in Hong Kong. Still, very very small group we are.

In terms of charging facilities, Chapter 8 : Internal Transport Facilities by the Planning Department of Hong Kong provides some interesting points, emphasis in bold.

Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities
7.2.7The Government has been actively promoting the wider use of electric vehicles (EVs) in Hong Kong, with a view to improving road side air quality, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating green business opportunities.  As EVs are driven by electric power, they need regular charging to stay in operation. At present, most EVs can be charged by standard charging facilities (i.e. home electric sockets with 220V, 13A power sources).  The setting up of standard charging facilities at car parks basically involves electrical wiring and installation of socket outlets.
7.2.8The provision of sufficient charging facilities in both private and public parking is crucial to the adoption and use of EVs. The Government’s longer term target is that as far as private cars are concerned, 30% are EVs or hybrid by 2020. On the assumption that the ratio of electric private cars to charging points should be at least one to one, EV standard charging facilities should be provided, where appropriate, in at least 30% of car parking spaces for private car in the following types or a mix of the following types of new developments -

(a)car parks of residential developments;
(b)car parks of commercial facilities;
(c)car parks of industrial developments; and
(d)car parks of business developments.
7.2.9To cater for future increase in the number of EVs, all car parking spaces of new developments as outlined in para. 7.2.8 (a) to (d) should be EV charging enabling, the technical requirements of which are specified in the relevant technical guidelines issued by the Electrical and Mechanical Services Department.
7.2.10Requirements in para. 7.2.8 - 7.2.9 do not apply to on-street parking spaces or outdoor car parks (with or without shelter).
7.2.11The installation of charging facilities and electrical wiring works should be done in compliance with relevant legislations (i.e. the Electricity Ordinance (Cap. 406) and regulations made thereunder) and guidelines issued by the Environment Bureau and the Electrical and Mechanical Services Department from time to time. 

One to one ratio and at least 30% of parking spaces have chargers? Great suggestions, but far from being achieved so far. On the EPD website, it still says,

There are now more than 1 200 EV chargers for public use including about 200 medium chargers in Hong Kong, covering all 18 districts in various types of buildings. 

With 4198 EVs on the road, not only does the Hong Kong Government need to upgrade 13A to medium and quick-chargers, but add enough to match their 'one-to-one' vision. In addition, the current problem is not simply a lack of EV charging stall, but a serious ICEing problem (i.e. Internal Combustion Engine vehicles occupying EV charging spots).

Eric Tang Chi-chung at Star Ferry car park.
Photo by Dickson Lee / SCMP
As long as the government car parks managed by the Transport Department of Hong Kong (namely Rumsey Street, Star Ferry, City Hall, Murray Road, Tin Hau, Shau Kei Wan, Yau Ma Tei, Sheung Fung Street and Tsuen Wan car parks) continue to refuse to issue fines to ICE offenders, the number of charging spots available for EV will be way less than 16.4% (52 coned charging spots out of a total of 317). Let hope the government departments are hearing voices from SCMP and our petition, otherwise, situation will only become worse and worse.

Tesla snake charger
Image from Tesla / The Verge

There are more areas that our Transport Department (TD) need to improve in order to earn back some lost fame for our beloved city. The lack of guts to accept creativity has already made Hong Kong an international joke when the Department forced Tesla to remove its autopilot functions from the car last NovemberTVB has also looked into this governmental repulsion of creativity in a recent news program. The trend now is that EV development is spearheading a revolution of innovation like never before, and creativity does not wait for legal approval. If TD decides to ostrich now, when fully autonomous cars arrives 24 and 36 months later, Hong Kong might be, "for the first time in forever", the only top-tier megacity not to have any fully autonomous cars on the planet.

(75% upward adjustment for December will be reverted to 70% due to Tesla Hong Kong's latest release of actual 2015 sales numbers of 2,221 on 25th Janurary 2016 at Tesla's Special Event in Hong Kong. As of 31 December 2015, the total number of Tesla Model S in Hong Kong could be 2,939.)

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015 @Locky's English Playground

Auto & Environment: Meeting Tesla Top Two Asia Pacific Referrers in Hong Kong @Locky's English Playground

Chapter 8 : Internal Transport Facilities @Planning Department of Hong Kong

Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong @ Environmental Protection Department

CY policy address focuses on increased housing and poverty fight @SCMP

Hong Kong parking shock: Two-thirds of public charging outlets in car parks taken up by petrol vehicles @SCMP

Hong Kong must redouble efforts to encourage use of electric car @SCMP

Make EV-charging spot EV-only in Government-owned car parks in Hong Kong

On the safe side: Tesla removes autopilot from Hong Kong cars to keep within law @SCMP

2016.01.06 - 顛覆.創新 +TVB (official)

Coast To Coast In A Tesla With No Driver Within 24 To 36 Months, Says Elon +Jalopnik

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles