Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015

EV Numbers and Growth in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015

Image from Locky's English Playground

The Transport Department of Hong Kong (TD) has released the finalised figures yesterday and it shows how precise my estimate is. Comparing with my post 2 days ago, the total number of EVs is off by just 1, that is my estimate of 4068 versus TD's 4067. And because the number is only differed by 1, all calculated  percentages about Tesla Model S stay unchanged and accurate.

(For calculations of those percentages, please read my previous post Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures).)

In the final quarter of 2015, Hong Kong enjoyed the best EV number increment since EV FRT waiver has been installed in 1994. With three consecutive record-breaking numbers from Oct 2015 to Dec 2015 (352, 437, 504), Hong Kong has added 1293 EVs in this period, or 31.8% of the total EV population in the city in just 3 months. The total number of EV per new vehicle purchase has raised from 12.87% in Oct to 16.26% in Nov and to 17.66% in Dec, which translates to 1 EV in every 6 new vehicles. Indeed, an incredible achievement and victory for all people of Hong Kong! Then again, because EVs only constitute 0.51% of all vehicles in Hong Kong, this victory is only a 0.51% victory. In order for Hong Kong to reach 25.5% of Norway, there is still a long way to go.

A long way, but the best and only way.

Hong Kong has lost its fighting spirit as a leader in Asia or the world for a quite some time, many of those No. 1 status Hong Kong was once proud of are now with Singapore and major cities of China. Now, for once in a very long time, Hong Kong has finally found something that they can be in a leader's position, not only in Asia but in the world, Hong Kong must not easily throw it away this time. As Tesla CEO Elon Musk puts it,

“Hong Kong is a beacon city for electric vehicles, [it can] serve as an example to the rest of the world on what to do, I currently do not foresee any city exceeding Hong Kong. It will be the leader of the world.”

Electric vehicle, battery technology and green energy are the future, and the future starts now. Will Hong Kong continue to embrace EV or will Hong Kong let all EV initiatives end by March 2017 with the expiration EV FRT waiver? "Government is committed to promoting the use of electric vehicles." How committed is the Government? How much effort are they willing to devote to fight climate change?


"When you are talking about losing all of nature, it's not a spectator sport anymore." -- Louie Psihoyos, director of Racing Extinction

Resource:

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures)
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2016/02/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

LCQ9: Exemption of payment of first registration tax for electric vehicles
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201511/04/P201511040377.htm

Norway Begins 2016 With Over 25% Market Share For Plug-In Electric Cars @InsideEVs
http://insideevs.com/norway-begins-2016-with-over-25-market-share-for-plug-in-electric-cars/

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles @SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk?edition=international

Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade +Bloomberg Business
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwHN6QQWv2g

Budget Speech by the Financial Secretary (3)
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201602/24/P201602240333_print.htm

"Racing Extinction" Official Trailer @ YouTube
https://youtu.be/MwxyrLUdcss

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures)

EV Growth in Hong Kong

Image from Locky's English Playground

First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to Forbes journalist John Kang for using my Jun/Jul 2015 estimates. It was a good article he wrote so please show your support by reading it.

While I anxiously wait for the Transport Department of Hong Kong (TD) to release their December 2015 statistics (which should be within this week), I am interested in knowing how far my estimates are from the actual ones, which is why I am releasing my latest estimates now. I will release another update when the actual figures are out.

EPD provisional overestimates VS TD actual
Image from Locky's English Playground

The main difference between this estimate and all previous estimates (eg. June/July, Oct) is the prediction of TD's actual numbers from the provisional ones released by the Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong (EPD). As the above table, it is obvious that EPD's overestimates are somewhat consistent every month. Therefore, taking the extra 130 from 11/30/2015, I can predict the TD actual numbers to a very high level of accuracy. In the case of 12/31/2015, the predicted total EV number in Hong Kong is 4068.

With this number, the total number of EV sold in Hong Kong in 2015 can be backtracked, hence 2630 (= Dec 2015 - Dec 2014). Since Tesla Hong Kong's official numbers of Tesla Model S sold in 2015 is 2221, Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong in 2015 accounts for 84.45% of all EVs sold in the city last year.

Based on the assumption that this percentage remained the same in 2014, the number of Tesla Model S sold since July 2014 launch till end of 2014 will be 708 (= (Dec 2014 - Jun 2014) x 84.45% = 838 x 84.45%).

Combining 2014 and 2015 numbers, the total number of Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong should be 2,929 (=2221 + 708), thus giving a percentage of 72% (=2929/4068) in the entire EV population in the city.

The limitation to this estimate is obviously the assumption made that Tesla Model S was sold with the same percentage in 2015 and between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014, which may or may not be true. However, should I further assume that the percentage between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014 was only half of 84.45%, bringing the total down to 2640 (=838 x 0.5 + 2221), Tesla Model S would still account for 64.9% of the entire EV population in the city, in a sense, still very close to 70%.

Let's see how close my estimates are when actual numbers from TD is released later this week.




Resources:
Tunnels, Sliding Doors And Mars: Tesla's Elon Musk Speaks In Hong Kong +Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkang/2016/01/26/teslas-elon-musk-speaks-in-hong-kong-about-tunnels-sliding-doors-and-mars/#6aa8aa35f5e8

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/09/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Oct 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2016/01/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong @ Environmental Protection Department
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles @ SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk?page=all

Food & Dining: Crab & Prawn Soup Udon by DONKA @North Point

DONKA
Image from Locky's English Playground

What's better than a bowl of hot noodles for lunch on one of those coldest days of the year?

DONKA in North Point could be one shop you might want to visit some day. The shop is about 5 mins walk from Fortress Hill MTR station, right beside City Garden Hotel.

Looking out from the shop
Image from Locky's English Playground

The shop is not exactly a big one, and not exactly at a popular area where there are numerous pedestrians, instead it is one family-owned mini-restaurant which you will expect quality food from.

Green
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Before we placed our orders, we were drawn to the garden-style decor.

Homeliness and coziness
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Very simple blend of real plants, wooden furniture and ceiling, warm ceiling lamps to create focal points. It is like one of those warehouses in the gardens, or a sweet little wooden hut up on hill tops.

Daily lunch sets
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It offers a variety of selection for lunch, but its signature dishes are not on the lunch menus.

A la carte menu
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The best are on the a la carte menu.

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The four most lethal soup bases: crab soup, vegan soup, fish soup and prawn soup.

Crab soup udon
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My wife is a crab lover, so she never hesitated. Crab soup was thickened with eggs, perfect for mixing with adequately chewy udon.

Hot lime tea
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And it comes with a lime drink! My wife loves this set, and wants to go back for more just by looking at the photo.

Prawn soup udon with prawn and fish fillet
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As for mine, the prawn soup udon with prawn and fish fillet was definitely the best choice for someone like me who adores richness and depth in taste. One sip and I could tell the soup was the essence of hundreds of prawn shell extract. Never have I encountered a more stimulating version of this soup. It is the one soup that is capable of making all bland tastes great!

Charcoal grilled prawn and deep fried fish fillet in soup
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In addition to the incredibly mesmerizing soup was the charcoal grilled prawn. Too bad there weren't four or five of them in the bowl because one was less than my bare minimal requirement.

Deep fried fish fillet failed
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The udon was almost perfect, except that this wonderfully golden deep fried fish fillet was only semi-cooked. Probably because the fillet was frozen before fried, so the centre had little time to reach maturity.

Beautifully fried fish fillet (second piece)
Image from Locky's English Playground

The chef cooked a second attempt for me without hesitation, but in spite of this, the second attempt yielded similar result. This confirms my prediction that the fillet had not been probably defrosted. The second piece did have a better bite as it was soaked in the soup, and maybe it should be served separately in the future.

Done
Image from Locky's English Playground

Overall, it was a great experience and I drank every last drop of the soup. The fish fillet though, I did not dare to consume.

Happy couple feeding
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At over $120 a bowl, I would say once in every 3 months is about what we can afford, but if you can afford it, it is the one bowl of udon you will be impressed with every time you have.