Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures)

EV Growth in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground


First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to Forbes journalist John Kang for using my Jun/Jul 2015 estimates. It was a good article he wrote so please show your support by reading it.

While I anxiously wait for the Transport Department of Hong Kong (TD) to release their December 2015 statistics (which should be within this week), I am interested in knowing how far my estimates are from the actual ones, which is why I am releasing my latest estimates now. I will release another update when the actual figures are out.

EPD provisional overestimates VS TD actual
Image from Locky's English Playground
The main difference between this estimate and all previous estimates (eg. June/July, Oct) is the prediction of TD's actual numbers from the provisional ones released by the Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong (EPD). As the above table, it is obvious that EPD's overestimates are somewhat consistent every month. Therefore, taking the extra 130 from 11/30/2015, I can predict the TD actual numbers to a very high level of accuracy. In the case of 12/31/2015, the predicted total EV number in Hong Kong is 4068.

With this number, the total number of EV sold in Hong Kong in 2015 can be backtracked, hence 2630 (= Dec 2015 - Dec 2014). Since Tesla Hong Kong's official numbers of Tesla Model S sold in 2015 is 2221, Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong in 2015 accounts for 84.45% of all EVs sold in the city last year.

Based on the assumption that this percentage remained the same in 2014, the number of Tesla Model S sold since July 2014 launch till end of 2014 will be 708 (= (Dec 2014 - Jun 2014) x 84.45% = 838 x 84.45%).

Combining 2014 and 2015 numbers, the total number of Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong should be 2,929 (=2221 + 708), thus giving a percentage of 72% (=2929/4068) in the entire EV population in the city.

The limitation to this estimate is obviously the assumption made that Tesla Model S was sold with the same percentage in 2015 and between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014, which may or may not be true. However, should I further assume that the percentage between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014 was only half of 84.45%, bringing the total down to 2640 (=838 x 0.5 + 2221), Tesla Model S would still account for 64.9% of the entire EV population in the city, in a sense, still very close to 70%.

Let's see how close my estimates are when actual numbers from TD is released later this week.




Resources:
Tunnels, Sliding Doors And Mars: Tesla's Elon Musk Speaks In Hong Kong +Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkang/2016/01/26/teslas-elon-musk-speaks-in-hong-kong-about-tunnels-sliding-doors-and-mars/#6aa8aa35f5e8

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/09/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Oct 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2016/01/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong @ Environmental Protection Department
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles @ SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk?page=all


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