Investment: Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 3

Investment: Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 3

China Opportunities

Here's a recap of the last two entries:

1. Electric cars, supported and promoted by the many countries in order to cub global warming, will be the next battlefield for investors.
2. Considering America, large companies like General Motor(GM), Ford and Chrysler may have more resources (borrowed money?), but small ones like Tesla and Fisker have ground-breaking technology.
3. The barrier to entry is not high for the car manufacturing industry.
4. The new era of electric cars will bring along a race to cheaper and greener energy to reduce CO2 emission.

The Short Run

In the short run, the biggest problem faced by the electric car industry is really how to make the car goes fast, so whoever gets the best battery wins. And a faster rechargeable battery is more important than the lifespan, which in turn is more important than the charge capacity and the size of the battery.

Lithium

If the batteries are so important, at the end of the day, the first industry to benefit is the Lithium industry due to the strong demand. Since 1966, the price of Lithium in the US has gone up from a low US$7.50 per pound to 1998 US$43.33 per pound[1]. The countries with the largest Lithium reserve are Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina[2].Unfortunately, there aren't any specific Lithium production companies listed in Hong Kong. But a tip is, most of the large Lithium reserves are found in Qinghai and Sichuan. [3] There is a company listed in Hong Kong which produces rechargeable batteries for motorbikes and is looking into the possibilities of manufacturing batteries for the electric cars, but the batteries they produce uses Lead(Pb), a highly dangerous element which has caused poisonings of villagers in China[4], so I wouldn't choose that.

Solar vs Wind

Like I have said in the previous entry, Lithium battery itself doesn't solve the problem of CO2 emission and global warming, so eventually, renewable energy is the key to total success. I choose solar to be the first choice, not only because it is unlimited (except at night or in very dark rainy days), it has a much better flexibility in installation over wind (windmills). Solar panels can be big or small, can be installed in large deserts, rooftop of skyscrapers, or even in calculators or toys. Now, of course, you can't expect the solar panels on your car's rooftop can generate enough power to run the entire journey as you drive, but you sure can install the solar panels at home and use the electricity generated to recharge your car![5] But if you are going to install a windmill at your home's rooftop, you will have to see if your home is located in a very windy area or not. Solar wins.

PS: Although I said you can't expect solar panels on the car's rooftop, Toyota has a car named Prius that at least powers the air-con.[6] Who knows what it can power in the long run?

Advancing technology in crystalline silicon production

Solar power comes from the sun, but to transfer that sunlight into electricity you need polysilicon (or polycrystalline silicon). The cheaper the production price, the better. As technology advances, production cost will only get cheaper and cheaper. With the push from governments all around the world, the larger the company, the more capital they have for research and development (R&D), and the better chance for success.

Chinese Opportunity

Investors can follow the trend of the global new energy through the Wilderhill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX) , which "is comprised of companies worldwide whose innovative technologies and services focus on generation and use of cleaner energy, conservation and efficiency, and advancing renewable energy generally. Included are companies whose lower-carbon approaches are relevant to climate change, and whose technologies help reduce emissions relative to traditional fossil fuel use. "[7]

From its report, only one company in this index is listed in Hong Kong -- the China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group Co (0658.HK), but the price of this company is way too high, being 5 times the Net Asset Value(NAV). However, there is still another company which is very cheap (below NAV) and is unaware by the general public.

Due to the conflict of interest (because I have already owned some), I cannot tell you which company it is, but I can list out some details of this company and you can do some homework to find out.

From the interim report 2009 of this company, it is the largest polysilicon supplier in China and Asia, and currently ranked 3rd largest in the world.

Despite the economic downturn, the company managed to achieve a 250% increase in the profit attributable to owners of this company.

As China is paying more attention to the renewable energies and the development of the low-carbon economy[8], the company is looking forward to meeting their targets -- 18,000 million tonnes (MT) by the end of 2009, and 21,000MT by the end of 2010.

The company also has 66 wind generator units for its Wind Power Plant located in Xilin Gol in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to commence operation in the second half of 2009.

Its polysilicon production cost has decreased from US$66/kg in 2008 to US$36/kg for the month of June 2009, and it is expected to drop even further as technology advances.

So, is this company worth investing? You need to see for yourself and do some homework. But how about the industry?

Ask George Soros[9]. Watch him on this Bloomberg new: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HexQpH-mYfo[10]

Picture resources:

http://www.solarpowerninja.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/solar-furnace.jpg

Resources:

[1] http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/450798.pdf

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium

[3] http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/2008/03/china.html

[4] http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/20/china-children-mass-lead-poisoning

[5] http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=29

[6] http://current.com/items/89079393

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polysilicon

[7] http://www.nexindex.com/

[8] http://www.mckinsey.com/locations/greaterchina/mckonchina/reports/china_green_revolution_report.pdf

[9]http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5992BJ20091010

[10]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HexQpH-mYfo

Investment: Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 2

Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 2

Electric Cars and What's Next?

So after reading my previous entry[1], BYD may not necessarily be the best company to invest in. Then which one(s) will be the best?

For those of you who have read one of my previous entry on Hydrogen Future, you should understand well that electric cars don't really solve the problem of global warming, rechargeable batteries don't really reduce the amount of CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission, because generating electricity from the burning of fossil fuel is not economically beneficial -- that is, the electricity generated actually produces less power than burning the fossil fuels.[2]

So to make electric cars genuinely environmental-friendly, you need to rely on renewable energy or green power. And that, will be the ultimate fields to put your money in.

Can you name some?

They are the solar, wind, wave, hydroelectric, tidal, biomass, biofuel, geothermal, in order of my personal preference. How do I come up with the order? Tell you the details in the next entry.

But now, let us welcome Obama to give his lecture, and you'll probably find some strong reasons.

Your homework is: Watch the following movie clip.

Resources:

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/10/investment-electric-cars-vs-future-part.html[1]
http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/06/science-technology-hydrogen-future.html [2]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j21hWUxdRIU

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_power

Investment: Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 1

Sorry about the late posting, I got one wisdom tooth removed last Saturday and have lost a lot of blood, so here's the new posting you have been waiting for.

Electric Cars vs Future -- Part 1

Who wants MyCar?

When Warren Buffett bought China's electric car & battery company BYD (1211.HK) October yesteryear at around $6, I actually wanted to buy it too (just for the sake of following), but the day the stock resume trading the next day, it went as high as $8, so I thought, okay, I should wait, and then, $11 the day after that, and it was "au voir" to the single digit price tag ever after!

Silly or not? I guess I was, but who can foresee the future this far? Even long before BYD could sell a single car, the price had hit as high as $60+. You can call this irrational, and I guess Buffett himself will think this is totally insane, but he lives his reputation higher than the price of his stock, so he won't sell the shares anytime near.

But is BYD really such a potential company? Well, before Buffett had invested in it, "No"; now, "Yes". He makes all the difference in the world! I guess nobody really even care much about the company BYD in the past as it was mainly manufacturing batteries for mobile phones, and even when it had started producing car batteries and "R&D-ing" their own cars, there are

a lot of other stronger, richer, better alternatives in Japan and USA, maybe even in China! But where his finger points, it turns to gold.

I missed the chance, what can I say?

Well, here's what I want to say, since car manufacturing industry is not exactly an industry which has a high "barrier to entry" (as Buffett puts it), small companies can hit big time when standing up against the very large ones, as long as they have quality to beat the big boys!

Heard of the first Hong Kong electric car, MyCar, co-developed by EuAuto Technology and Hong Kong Polytechnic University? If not, read this.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=16868&icid=3&d_str=20091023

Now if you ask me, I will NOT invest in this car or this company. Why? It doesn't look cool, thus doesn't attract mainland billionaires. It doesn't look comfortable because it is so crammed! It is so expensive, it runs so slow, one of them doesn't even have air-conditioning which is definitely a killer in a short-winter Hong Kong.

At the same time when Hong Kong politicians are celebrating their own minor success, financial magazines are already having a real buzz about a USA small company of the same kind. Without further ado, Watch the follow 3 movie clips!!!

MEET TESLA's ROADSTER!!!

http://video.nytimes.com/video/2009/04/08/automobiles/1194839344102/start-up-electric-car-companies.html

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x25986_tesla-electric-car_auto

Now, MyCar anybody? That will be your car. I like the Roadster!

Resources:

As listed above.

Homework: Comment on what you think about electric cars.

Idiom: Give Face...Lose Face

Today, my colleagues and I were talking about the students and I said that the students were "giving" one of my colleagues "face" and paid attention in her class. She suddenly became so curious and asked me how I knew this term. She said this is Chinese.

Really? I wasn't so sure, but I am sure some English speakers do use it. My claim was, if there is such a term as "lose face"(to suffer disgrace, humiliation, or embarrassment), "save face" (to avoid disgrace, humiliation, or embarrassment), why can't there be "give face"? She immediately asked me to find it for her and suddenly, there were 3 English teachers surrounding me waiting for my proof. My computer was slow so eventually, only one waited, and I got the answer from Wiktionary.org,

To give face -- A calque of Cantonese bei2 min2 比面 (literally Give face, with altered pronouciation for face and no written chinese for give.) (idiomatic) To honor; to pay respect.

One more click, I found that all three idioms originated from Chinese. Not surprised, because there are many loanwords that came from Chinese language anyway, those of you who attended my classes knew this well. That does not mean English speakers cannot use these loanwords, right? There is really no need to make

Anyway, there are other idioms related to the word face, which are very popular.

Say, poker-faced (adj), describes sb who shows no feeling or thinking on the face.

eg. That poker face(n) he has makes me want to punch him every time I see it.

Pizza-face (n)(slang)(not polite), sb who has a lot of pimples or spots on the face.

eg. If you don't want anymore pizza-face, call Xacquline!!

Straight face(n), a serious expression, used when you try not to laugh.

eg. The teacher actually liked the naughty student's joke, but to keep his cool, he kept a straight face.

to have a long face(n), a sad face.

eg. He has a long face because his love was not accepted by his female employee.

be in your face(US informal), if sb is in your face they criticise you all the time.

eg. My mum is always in my face!

However, another way I hear most often is when I am playing basketball with my friends or when watching basketball games, when sb score points in front of another player.

eg. "Le Bron goes for a slam...he puts it in! In your face!"

For more basketball terms, don't forget to read Common Terms in Basketball also.

Resources:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lose+face?o=100074

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/lose_face

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/save_face

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/give_face

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=61196&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=60329&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=78586&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=27457&dict=CALD

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/05/sports-common-terms-in-basketball.html

News Article: Call for lessons to begin at six

First, let's read a news article:

Quoting the entire article from BBC News 16th Oct 09

Call for lessons to begin at six

By Hannah Richardson BBC News education reporter

Nurseries provide a basic foundation for learning

Children should not start formal learning until they are six, a review of primary education in England says.

Instead they should continue the kind of play-based learning that features in nursery schools and reception classes, the Cambridge Primary Review says.

There is no evidence that an early introduction to formal learning has any benefit, the review says, but there are suggestions it can do some harm.

Ministers say a starting age of six would be completely counter-productive.

Most children start primary school in England aged four, and a large proportion are taking advantage of free, part-time pre-school places in local schools and privately-run nurseries from the age of three.

The kind of learning that goes on there follows the government's "Early Years Foundation Stage", which currently runs to the age of five and is a play-based curriculum which includes some early literacy and numeracy goals.

This is not a wishy-washy - just let them get on with it thing. It's a balance between children-initiated and adult-initiated learning Dame Gillian Pugh Co-author

Continuing this informal but structured learning for a year or so would bring children in England in line with many European countries, where school starts at six or even seven, and standards are often higher.

A similar step has already been taken in Wales where a play-based curriculum has been extended to the end of Key Stage 1, when children are aged seven. A similar system is also being introduced in Northern Ireland.

"This would give sufficient time for children to establish positive attitudes to learning and begin to develop the language and study skills which are essential to their later progress," says the review, which is based on six years of academic work.

It stops short of calling for the age of compulsory schooling to be put back to age six, but does call for an open debate on the subject.

However, it adds, that the issue is less about where children learn than what they learn.

Dame Gillian Pugh, who co-authored the review, said play-based learning was not a "wishy-washy, 'just let them get on with it' thing".

"It's a balance between children-initiated and adult-initiated learning," she said.

'Social disadvantage'

She said four and five-year-olds tended to be at a stage where they were just "tuning in" to learning and that they could be "turned off" if they were made to follow too formal a curriculum, too early on.

HAVE YOUR SAY

Sometimes I think people are more interested in the childminding aspects of primary schools and nurseries than whether or not they are having any actual benefit

Lee Brown, Thornhill

Send us your comments

This would be of particular benefit to children from disadvantaged backgrounds and those with speech and language delays, she added.

But she argued it would not hold back brighter children who were ready to begin basic numeracy and literacy in reception classes.

The review also notes that there are downward pressures to get children in reception year ready for the early years of school and the tests that follow.

It also calls for free part-time nursery provision to be offered to two-year-olds in areas of social disadvantage and for children with particular needs.

'Pillars of stability'

This would help them get the most out of school and hopefully close the achievement gap, it says.

The authors also call for national assessment tests, known as Sats, to be abandoned, saying their high-stakes nature, being linked to league tables, encourages a too-narrow focus on literacy and numeracy.

Instead, children should be assessed on the broad range of subjects throughout primary school and at its end, but these assessments should be used to monitor children's progress rather than hold teachers accountable.

Welsh schoolchildren no longer sit SATS at 7, 11 and 14, nor are school league tables used there any more.

The review team also called for a major review of the way schools are staffed, arguing that there is a case for using more specialist teachers alongside the traditional class teacher.

But they also said primary schools were "pillars of stability" that were highly valued by parents and pivotal to communities.

'Counter-productive'

England's schools minister Vernon Coaker said the government was already reforming primary education to make the curriculum less prescriptive and free it up for teachers.

He added: "A school starting age of six would be completely counter-productive - we want to make sure children are playing and learning from an early age and to give parents the choice for their child to start in the September following their fourth birthday.

"Our expert group on assessment said it would be a backward step to scrap English and maths tests at 11 and we are piloting a School Report Card, which will give parents a far broader picture of how schools are doing."

Christine Blower, general secretary of the NUT, said: "All the evidence shows that proper, in-depth early years education provided by qualified teachers gives the best possible start to children's schooling."

Vocabulary:

Wishy-washy : no focus

Pillar of sth: a very important part of sth

pivotal: central and important

counter-: (prefix) oppose to

scrap : to get rid of

*******************************************************************

This article is longer but it is rather easy to read.

How many of the parents are actually making their kids learn formally before the age of 6? It is sometimes tempting to see other people's kids reciting Chinese poems, speaking good English with difficult vocabulary, or calculating maths with their imaginary abacus in their heads while flicking their fingers unceasingly. Frankly speaking, if I were a father, I would also want my kid to be really smart and be good in everything. But because you want them to learn better, you should also give them chances to develop their brain before they absorb the information.

Children are children because their brain is not as developed as an adult, so they need to discover, learn through trial and error and mimicking. Parents should guide but not force, be patient and give lots of encouragement.

I cannot say how all children feel, but if you ask any adults, their best memories are the ones they feel happiest and saddest. If you don't want the learning part to be part of their saddest memories, then you need to make it the happiest ones.

After reading the article, I suppose you understand that for young children, they should play more, so it is advisable you let them try more and allow them to expose to more, both active (such as sports) and patience-required (such as music and chess). Allow them time and guide them as they discover their own interests, and then develop their interests from there.

As for me, I think the most useful skill that I have acquired is imagination, and I attained that from painting pictures since 2 years old.

If you really want them to learn certain things, then the only way is for you to show the child what you want them to learn more often. But whether they will learn from you eventually, remember it is their choice.

HW: If you do not know the words in bold, check dictionary and then write a sentence each. Post them here.

Resources:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/8309153.stm

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=90941&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=59919&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=60323&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=1082868&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=70570&dict=CALD

Website: CNN.com (for Listening Practice)

We've been working on grammar for almost a week or more, so it is time to chill out a little and broaden our horizon. Since the last time I recommended SCMP.com Video, I now have yet another great website with more than enough reading articles and videos for your taste.

The CNN Video:

This website allows your to watch videos in English according to categories such as U.S., Politics, World Business, Entertainment, Health, Living, etc.

Just like the SCMP.com, it does not come with subtitles, but if you are looking for both higher level listening practice as well as knowledge or the most updated happenings around the world, or even some really bizarre things, this is your channel!

CNN

Not to forget that this website also has many articles for reading, so you can also have free access to world news, and it is totally free, unlike the SCMP.

Take it easy this week! Bigger topics next week!

Resources:

http://www.cnn.com/

http://www.cnn.com/video/