Tuesday 1 November 2016

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Aug 2016

Progress of EV in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground
The third quarter of EV progress in Hong Kong continues to show encouraging numbers after a drop in EV sales in April and May, which coincides with the post-announcement-pre-delivery of new Tesla Model S facelift version.

Progress of EV in Hong Kong till Aug 2016
Image from Locky's English Playground
Delivery has picked up once again in June at 204 when new Tesla Model S Facelift has begun delivery in Hong Kong and stayed strong in July at 297 and in August at 290 EVs. Although these numbers are not near the the highest of 511 in March 2016 and 504 in December 2015, these numbers are still higher than any of the months from January to September in 2015.

Percentage of EVs in all registered vehicles including EVs and all fossil fuel vehicles is 0.75%, which means for every 10000 cars, there will be 75 EVs, still a very small percentage.

Willingness to purchase EVs is good, as June, July and August 2016 shows roughly 1 in every 5 new cars is an EV.

Another interesting observation is that the total willingness to buy a vehicle has dropped from around 3000 new cars per month in Feb 2015 to around 2700 in December 2015 to around 1400 in July 2016. This downtrend seems to correlate to the uptake of EVs per new car bought.

Looking ahead at the provisional number of EVs in September 2016 in which another 531 (= 666 - 135 usual overestimates) EVs have possibly been sold, we are likely to be seeing another record-breaking EV delivery month!

Progress of EV in Hong Kong with numbers from Transport Department
Image from Locky's English Playground

Total monthly registered increase in EV since Tesla Model S Launch has a mean of 208.9 and a standard deviation of 131.527.

The "curve" of growth remains pretty much a straight, inclined line since Tesla Model S Launch in Hong Kong in July 2014. As an EV-lover, the more upward curve the merrier.

Analysis of Tesla Model S in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground

My analysis has been slightly updated with clearer headings and numbering. Optimistic calculation remains on the left and pessimistic on the right. 2015 is still the core of my estimate for Tesla's sales performance in 2014 and 2016, with the assumption that Tesla is doing just as well in 2015 as it is in 2016.

Till Aug 2016, if Model S sales performance is consistent with that in the entire 2015, then optimistically there should be 4588 Tesla Model S and 4136 pessimistically. Taking the average of the two we get 4362, which is equivalent to 72.3% of the EV population in Hong Kong in the same month (= 4362 / 6031 x 100%).

Street-wise, I have personally run into Renault Zoe owned by Hong Kong Electric and more Volkswagen E-golf owned by CLP Power, as well as at least 3 Tesla Model S almost at any moments on the roads, the future is looking bright!

Here's a video interview of Charged Hong Kong chairman Mark Webb-Johnson with Renault Hong Kong's brand manager at FIA Formula E Hong Kong event.

Loss of tangible cost-Total economic loss: Hedley Environmental Index by HKU
Image captured and line drawn by Locky's English Playground

Last but not least, again, this may be coincidental with the stricter pollution control and refinement of fuel mix by the power companies, but the Hedley Environmental Index charts (an indicator for air pollution level impacting the Hong Kong economy managed by the Environmental Health Research Team of School of Public Health at The University of Hong Kong ) for Total Economic Loss (= Loss of tangible cost + loss of healthy life value), have finally shown a general trend of decline since January 2014, which coincides with the time when EVs in Hong Kong began to pick up sales.

Loss of healthy life value-Total economic loss: Hedley Environmental Index by HKU
Image captured and line drawn by Locky's English Playground
What these means is the air has dramatically improved during this period and the entire Hong Kong population has been living a healthier life for the last 2 years.

Hedley Environmental Index by HKU
Image captured by Locky's English Playground
Could any part of this contributed by the growth of EVs?

Hedley Environmental Index on 1st November 2016
Image from HKU
As of today, just one day, 1st November 2016, the total economic loss is near HK$72M. My calculated average shows about 200 EVs are sold in Hong Kong per month, meaning less than 0.667 EVs per day. The EV First Registration Tax waives, based on a personal 'guesstimate' for simplicity sake, an average of HK$0.72M per EV, that is 1% of the total economic loss due to air pollution PER DAY, and today is considered as quite a good day with low level of air pollution, as demonstrated by the photo below, taken today in North Point.

Still see a little blue sky above
Image from Locky's English Playground 

Thank you Prof. Hedley!


First look at the Tesla Model S with new front-end [Updated] +Electrek.co

Tesla Offer HK Facebook

Hedley Environmental Index

Anthony Hedley was a true hero of community health @SCMP

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