Economics: Double dip warning

Some of you who have followed my blog right from the very first few entries should know that my favourite economist is no other than the winner of the 2008 nobel memorial prize in economics, Paul Krugman. In the past, I have recommended his book, the Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008, as well as his blog on the New York Times website, and surely you must have benefited a lot from his brilliant insight (and his humorous English).

I like this line he made the best, "When life hands you Lehman, make Lehman aid."

Well, recently, I read something really horrifying! Titled"Double dip warning", the article goes as follows (highlighting the crucial information):

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December 1, 2009, 11:30 AM

Double dip warning

I’ve never been fully committed to the notion that we’re going to have a “double dip” — that the economy will slide back into recession. But it has been clear for a while that it’s a serious possibility, for two reasons. First, a large part of the growth we’ve had has been driven by the stimulus — but the stimulus has already had its maximum impact on the growth of GDP, will hit its maximum impact on the level of GDP in the middle of next year, and then will begin to fade out. Second, the rise in manufacturing production is to a large extent an inventory bounce — and this, too, will fade out in the quarters ahead.

Two stories this morning highlight the risks. The WSJ has a report on highway construction titled Job Cuts Loom as Stimulus Fades:

Highway-construction companies around the country, having completed the mostly small projects paid for by the federal economic-stimulus package, are starting to see their business run aground, an ominous sign for the nation’s weak employment picture.

Meanwhile, the ISM for manufacturing suggests that industrial growth is already slowing down.

I’d be more sanguine about all of this if there were any indications that private, final demand is taking off — consumers, business investment, whatever. But I haven’t seen anything suggesting that sort of thing.

The chances of a relapse into recession seem to be rising.

******************************************************

Then he wrote a few more articles, "Good news is bad news", "Bernake does a bad, bad thing" showing evidence that this is not going to be good.

For those of you who cares about the world of money, be vigilant.

Vocabulary:

Sanguine -- (of someone or their character) positive and hopeful

Vigilant -- always being careful to notice things, especially possible danger

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Resources:

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/03/book-return-of-depression-economics-and.html

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/06/blog-investment-paul-krugmans.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/opinion/15krugman.html

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/double-dip-warning/

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/good-news-is-bad-news/

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/bernanke-does-a-bad-bad-thing/

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=69772&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=88296&dict=CALD

Investment: What's after Solar? Wind Power

What's after Solar? Wind Power

As some of you might still remember that I have written 3 articles (part 1, part 2, part 3) on why I seriously consider solar power to be a better alternative than wind power, but that doesn't mean I do not admire the power of the wind.

Support for the wind power industry

On the 26th November, Beijing announced that it aimed to boost the country's energy efficiency as part of its contribution to the fight against global warming. China pledged to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of gross domestic product by between 40% and 45% by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. [1] And what do you think will contribute to this large reduction in CO2?

Charm of Longyuan

As the IPO (international public offering) of Asia's largest wind power generator, China's Longyuan Power Group, drew to a close, locking in over HK$200 billion for its 230 times oversubscription and making its IPO this year's fourth-largest deal in terms of frozen liquidity[2], Hong Kong environmentalists finally have the channels to play a part in healing the world through investing in the largest solar and wind power companies in Asia. (Why Investing in these companies allows you to participate in saving the world?[3])

The attraction of Longyuan Power is more than obvious. Longyuan Power has charmed cornerstone investors such as the China Investment Corp. (CIC), WL Ross & Co. LLC, founded by billionaire Wilbur Ross, and companies linked to China Life Insurance Co., Bank of East Asia Ltd. Chairman David Li and Hong Kong-based asset manager Value Partners Group Ltd.[4]

Riping Fruit

But all these come nothing close to the importance of the company's fundamental, and the good news is, the fruits are riping. In simple words, since in the wind power business, constructions require a lot of starting capital, but once the facilities are installed, wind starts turning the turbines and electricity starts generating and money starts following in. Quoting from the prospectus of Longyuan, "its operating profit as a percentage of our total operating profit increased substantially from 13.3% in 2006 to 69.4% for the six months ended June 30, 2009"[5], "For the years ended December 31, 2006, 2007 and 2008 and the six months ended June 30, 2009 ...our wind power business’s operating profit accounted for 13.3%, 39.6%, 75.7% and 69.4%, respectively, of our total operating profit, and its adjusted operating margin (as defined below) amounted to 32.9%, 45.8%, 53.9%, and 56.5% during those periods."[5](page 11)

Problems faced by the wind power industry

Government has full support for this renewable energy industry so I am not worried about the future of this company at all. The only thing I am more concerned is what I have read from Discovery New, that as global warming continues to worsen, wind speed is actually slowing down across the globe[6], and if the turbines do not move, there is no power. You might think it is quite impossible for wind completely not to blow -- which is true, but in the long run, it seems that wind will keep losing its speed[7]. Solar power will not have similar problem.

Either too strong or too weak of the wind speed is not beneficial for the wind power companies. Looking carefully through the prospectus of Longyuan, you will find on page 40 that, "Currently, wind turbines will only begin to operate when wind speeds reach a certain minimum (approximately three to four meters per second), and must be disconnected when wind speeds exceed a certain maximum (approximately 20-25 meters per second). Therefore, if wind speeds are outside these limits, the electricity output from our wind farms will decrease or cease."[5] Which is another reason why I prefer solar to wind power.

Pricing of Longyuan

Some said Longyuan is offering its shares at 16 to 19 times the year 2010 Price-to-Earning ratio (PE)[8], some said 28.9 times [9], the difference is quite large, so whatever it is, there is certain risk in this investment, so the question is, how strong is your belief in your investment decision?

Hereby I leave you with the wise words of Benjamin Graham, which might have been read by Warren Buffett also,

"You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else."

Vocabulary:

pledge -- to make a serious or formal promise to give or do something

lock in -- to make money not able to be moved / flowed around in the market

oversubscription -- The excess number of shares or bonds that investors want to buy but are not available due to high demand.

frozen liquidity -- money which is not able to be moved for a period of time

play a part in -- to help to achieve something

charm -- to attract someone or persuade someone to do something because of your charm

cornerstone investors -- investors of great importance which everything else depends on

substantially -- to a large degree

cease -- to stop something

Picture resources:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20090723/0013729e4a9d0bd1e2af03.jpg

Resources:

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/10/investment-electric-cars-vs-future-part.html

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/10/investment-electric-cars-vs-future-part_28.html

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/10/investment-electric-cars-vs-future-part_30.html

http://cleantechnica.com/2009/12/01/22-billion-ipo-for-china-wind-power-longyuan/

[1] http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KL02Cb02.html

[2] http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=91444&sid=26289945&con_type=1

[3] http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/11/news-article-china-strategy-holds-key.html

[4] http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ag598.uJGFl0

[5] http://www.hkexnews.hk/index.htm

[6] http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/06/10/winds-dying-down.html

[7] http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/06/10/winds-dying-down-02.html

[8] http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSHKG12380320091201

[9] http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj9yf9eSYMkQ&pos=7

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=60763&dict=CALD

http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Oversubscription

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=60635&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=12659&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=17212&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=79479&dict=CALD

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=12082&dict=CALD

Grammar: Parallel Structure -- Beginner Level

After a couple of entries expressing my admiration of Rowan Atkinson's talents, we will shift back to a little grammar, just to spice up things a little bit.

Parallel Structure -- Beginner Level

Question! Is the following sentence correct?

Parallel structure is a big problem in written English and spoken English.

The answer is "Yes". How about this one?

Parallel structure is a big problem in written English and in spoken English.

The answer is still "Yes".

And this is parallel structure, in simple words, it is the balancing of words.

Take a look at the following example.

Mary loves to swim, to paint and draw.

Does it look balanced to you?

Your answer should be "No", because it should be:

Mary loves to swim, to paint and to draw.

Or you can write like this:

Mary loves to swim, paint and draw.

Or even this:

Mary loves swimming , painting and drawing.

How about a little change this time:

Jacko hates girls who spend money on branded good, wasting time in shopping malls all day, and who wear heavy make-up.

A couple of ways to make it right:

1. Jacko hates girls who spend money on branded good, waste time in shopping malls all day, and wear heavy make-up.
2. Jacko hates girls who spend money on branded good, who waste time in shopping malls all day, and who wear heavy make-up.
   
   

Do read the link below for more examples.

Resources:

http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/623/01/

TV Drama & Actor: Mr Bean (and many more) by Rowan Atkinson

In the previous entry, I have mentioned that Rowan Atkinson is one of my all-time favourite comedians. He is my favourite actor not only is he incredibly talented, but he is also so awfully devoted in his acting preparations, somehow at a level similar to Michael Jackson's in the documentary "THIS IS IT".

I have always loved watching Mr Bean's TV series and movies, but I have never thought about how educational it can be. Until this year's September, I accidentally came across Mr Bean's Official Channel on Youtube and watched a couple of clips, and the next thing I knew, I was incorporating the movie clips into my lessons for Form 1 students!

And all of a sudden, my love for the TV drama Mr Bean was rekindled and I just couldn't resist and got myself a DVD set of Mr Bean from HMV while it is on Christmas sale (HMV is selling it at $229)

Not everyone appreciates the unusual talents of Mr Bean, and some even hated him, for his actions are dumb and silly, but I don't quite fully agree with that -- I consider Mr Bean as rather smart and creative! Even Rowan Atkinson himself has described Bean as “a 9-year-old boy, with an apparent lack of worldly experience, but an ingenuity that is quite clever in dealing with problems presented to him.”[1]

To a certain extent, I do think some audience do need a certain appreciation of the actor before liking the character he plays. As for me, I have never loved Mr Bean more after I saw the making of Mr Bean -- all that detailed preparation and thinking in every little movement of Mr Bean just stun me like a bolt. I tried finding it in Google Video and Youtube with no luck, so I guess if you want to learn more about the making of Mr Bean, you will need to get a set of DVDs like I did. But I do have some clips for you to see the talents of Rowan Atkinson from his Rowan Atkinson Live, released in 1992. [2]

looter -- sb who (usually of large numbers of people during a violent event) steals from shops and houses

pillager -- sb who rob goods by force, especially in time of war; plunder.

fornicator -- sb who has sex with someone who you are not married to

adulterers -- a married man who has sex with a woman who is not his wife, or a man who has sex with another man's wife

Guillotine -- a device, invented in France, consisting of a sharp blade in a tall frame which was used in the past for killing criminals by cutting off their heads. Here it refers to people who died until this device

Atheists -- someone who believes that God or gods do not exist

nitwit -- a silly or stupid person, having the brain of a nit (See Nit-picker).

damnation -- the act of sending someone to hell or the state of being in hell

relief -- a feeling of happiness that something unpleasant has not happened or has ended. Here it refers to going to the toilet.

Adolf Hilter -- (Click the name and read up)

Note: Christians and Jews conflict from Wikipedia, quoting "Later in medieval Western Europe, further persecutions of Jews in the name of Christianity occurred, notably during the Crusades—when Jews all over Germany were massacred—and a series of expulsions from England, Germany, France, and, in the largest expulsion of all, Spain and Portugal after the Reconquista (the Catholic Reconquest of the Iberian Peninsula), where both unbaptized Sephardic Jews and the ruling Muslim Moors were expelled."

Like Mr Bean, Rowan has the amazing ability to create fun and joy for the audience without saying a single word.
Watch his amazing performance on this invisible piano here:

The ingenious Rowan Atkinson has an extraordinary career which began at the age of 17 . He graduated from the very prestigious Queen's College of the Oxford University, in which he met his dear friend writer plus crucial work-partner Richard Curtis, and was spotted at the 1976 Festival by television producer John Lloyd, who went on to produce him in his first starring role[3]. After that, Rowan and his team has produced numerous amount of TV series, dramas, sitcoms, movies and most importantly, unlimited amount of joy and fun for over 30 years! (Which I believe, for many many more decades to come)

If you see some of Rowan's interview, you will discover that he does not easily satisfy with his work. In Dailymail.co.uk dated 2nd November 2008, Rowan said he has only been in one film that he is totally proud of, and that was Four Weddings and a Funeral, which was written by his close friend, John Curtis. I have not watched the entire movie, but I did find this part rather funny (difficult to understand if you do not know the actual wordings a priest should say).

On the 20th November 2009, the Digitalspy.co.uk reported that Rowan is in talk of making the sequel of Johnny English (discussed in the previous article)!!! I sure will be one of the first to watch this movie once it is out!


Resources:

[1] http://www.clown-ministry.com/index_1.php/articles/mr_bean_the_whole_bean/#ixzz0YVLA3xXr
[2] http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0163186/
[3] http://web.archive.org/web/20041204231354/www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/guide/talent/a/atkinson_rowan.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowan_Atkinson

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrBean
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UbqZ_oN5do


http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=47253&dict=CALD
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/pillagers
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=30657&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=1161&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=34897&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=53812&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=19498&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=66721&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=1087203&dict=CALD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hilter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Jews


http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/movies/news/a187859/atkinson-in-talks-for-johnny-english-2.html


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1082470/Ive-film-I-totally-proud-confesses-comedian-Rowan-Atkinson.html

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/05/idioms-nit-picker.html

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/11/movie-vocab-johnny-english-spoke-in.html

Movie & Vocab: Johnny English (spoke in a unclear way)

Last week, a diligent student asked me the word for describing the action of someone speaking in an unclear way. I couldn't recall the verb or the actual spelling of the word on the spot, so I promised her I would get back to her. Thus my entry today:

The first word which came to my mind that day was the term "talking gibberish", which reminds me of one of my favourite comedies called Johnny English, by my all-time favourite actor, Rowan Atkinson. (I will write the next entry to discover more about him)

Gibberish is a noun which refers to "spoken or written words which are nonsense and have no meaning", and you can watch a hilarious part of the Johnny English movie which uses this word:

Johnny English: (watch from 6:44)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlHUXPg6Was

(HMV is now selling it at $55 a DVD!!!)


But gibberish doesn't quite fit the word we wanted, and so I tried to recall and research, and here's what I have to share:


Gibber -- to speak quickly in a way that cannot be understood, usually when you are very frightened or confused
Jabber (away/out) -- to speak or say something quickly in a way that is difficult to understand
Gabble (away) -- to speak quickly and not clearly so that it is difficult to understand
Burble (about sth/on about sth)-- to talk about something continuously and in a way that is not very clear
Waffle (on)-- to talk or write a lot without giving any useful information or any clear answers
Mumble -- to speak quietly and in a way that is not clear so that the words are difficult to understand




What is interesting about these words are that they more or less have the suffix -er or -le in their spellings!!! I found an online book called "The Cambridge History of the English Language, Volume 3 by Richard M. Hogg, Norman Francis Blake, Roger Lass, R. W. Burchfield" which talks about these suffixes on page 406. What it says on the book is that -le expresses small and repeated movements, while -er expresses sound or movements.


After knowing this, I hope you will find memorizing these words a little easier. I have also discussed -en suffix earlier on, so you may take another look if you have forgotten.


http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/06/vocabulary-suffix-en.html


There are many other examples given in this book, so you may also learn them up.





Picture resources:
http://www.dailyinfo.co.uk/images/cinema/johnny-english.jpg


Resources:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxfk9qDV3cA
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=32805&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=32807&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=42313&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=10310&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=31936&dict=CALD
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=88770&dict=CALD
http://books.google.com/books?id=CCvMbntWth8C&pg=PA406&lpg=PA406&dq=suffixes+%22-le%22&source=bl&ots=U-z6YSxDAa&sig=pOiHuLm0pTUx5m4zNNmauUC0gpk&hl=en&ei=Z1gTS5b6CZGTkAXf2ImjBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&ved=0CCMQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=suffixes%20%22-le%22&f=false
http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2009/06/vocabulary-suffix-en.html

Usage: Look or Outlook?

I often have students making this mistakes when describing someone's face or feelings.

1. "Your outlook is good!"
2. "You look like happy today!"

Are you one of them?

It is actually not hard to tell the difference, just don't let your Chinese knowledge mix you up.

In example 1, the correct way to say should be "I like your looks!" Since "look" already means "appearance", which already carries the meaning of external features, thus you don't need to use "out-".

You can also say, "You have good looks!" To praise someone who has good appearance.

In example 2, "like" is wrongly used. The meaning of "You look like..." is "You have a similar appearance as ...", so we say "You look like Brad Pitt", or "You look like a boy", which is usually followed by a noun, ie. "Sb looks like + noun"

The correct way to say should be, "You look happy today!"

You can also say, "He has a happy look on his face."

Do you have anymore doubts now? Do leave me your questions if you do.

Resources:

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/results.asp?searchword=outlook&x=0&y=0