Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures)

EV Growth in Hong Kong

Image from Locky's English Playground

First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to Forbes journalist John Kang for using my Jun/Jul 2015 estimates. It was a good article he wrote so please show your support by reading it.

While I anxiously wait for the Transport Department of Hong Kong (TD) to release their December 2015 statistics (which should be within this week), I am interested in knowing how far my estimates are from the actual ones, which is why I am releasing my latest estimates now. I will release another update when the actual figures are out.

EPD provisional overestimates VS TD actual
Image from Locky's English Playground

The main difference between this estimate and all previous estimates (eg. June/July, Oct) is the prediction of TD's actual numbers from the provisional ones released by the Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong (EPD). As the above table, it is obvious that EPD's overestimates are somewhat consistent every month. Therefore, taking the extra 130 from 11/30/2015, I can predict the TD actual numbers to a very high level of accuracy. In the case of 12/31/2015, the predicted total EV number in Hong Kong is 4068.

With this number, the total number of EV sold in Hong Kong in 2015 can be backtracked, hence 2630 (= Dec 2015 - Dec 2014). Since Tesla Hong Kong's official numbers of Tesla Model S sold in 2015 is 2221, Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong in 2015 accounts for 84.45% of all EVs sold in the city last year.

Based on the assumption that this percentage remained the same in 2014, the number of Tesla Model S sold since July 2014 launch till end of 2014 will be 708 (= (Dec 2014 - Jun 2014) x 84.45% = 838 x 84.45%).

Combining 2014 and 2015 numbers, the total number of Tesla Model S sold in Hong Kong should be 2,929 (=2221 + 708), thus giving a percentage of 72% (=2929/4068) in the entire EV population in the city.

The limitation to this estimate is obviously the assumption made that Tesla Model S was sold with the same percentage in 2015 and between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014, which may or may not be true. However, should I further assume that the percentage between Jul 2014 and Dec 2014 was only half of 84.45%, bringing the total down to 2640 (=838 x 0.5 + 2221), Tesla Model S would still account for 64.9% of the entire EV population in the city, in a sense, still very close to 70%.

Let's see how close my estimates are when actual numbers from TD is released later this week.




Resources:
Tunnels, Sliding Doors And Mars: Tesla's Elon Musk Speaks In Hong Kong +Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkang/2016/01/26/teslas-elon-musk-speaks-in-hong-kong-about-tunnels-sliding-doors-and-mars/#6aa8aa35f5e8

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/09/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Oct 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2016/01/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong @ Environmental Protection Department
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles @ SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk?page=all

Food & Dining: Crab & Prawn Soup Udon by DONKA @North Point

DONKA
Image from Locky's English Playground

What's better than a bowl of hot noodles for lunch on one of those coldest days of the year?

DONKA in North Point could be one shop you might want to visit some day. The shop is about 5 mins walk from Fortress Hill MTR station, right beside City Garden Hotel.

Looking out from the shop
Image from Locky's English Playground

The shop is not exactly a big one, and not exactly at a popular area where there are numerous pedestrians, instead it is one family-owned mini-restaurant which you will expect quality food from.

Green
Image from Locky's English Playground

Before we placed our orders, we were drawn to the garden-style decor.

Homeliness and coziness
Image from Locky's English Playground

Very simple blend of real plants, wooden furniture and ceiling, warm ceiling lamps to create focal points. It is like one of those warehouses in the gardens, or a sweet little wooden hut up on hill tops.

Daily lunch sets
Image from Locky's English Playground

It offers a variety of selection for lunch, but its signature dishes are not on the lunch menus.

A la carte menu
Image from Locky's English Playground

The best are on the a la carte menu.

Image from Locky's English Playground

The four most lethal soup bases: crab soup, vegan soup, fish soup and prawn soup.

Crab soup udon
Image from Locky's English Playground

My wife is a crab lover, so she never hesitated. Crab soup was thickened with eggs, perfect for mixing with adequately chewy udon.

Hot lime tea
Image from Locky's English Playground

And it comes with a lime drink! My wife loves this set, and wants to go back for more just by looking at the photo.

Prawn soup udon with prawn and fish fillet
Image from Locky's English Playground

As for mine, the prawn soup udon with prawn and fish fillet was definitely the best choice for someone like me who adores richness and depth in taste. One sip and I could tell the soup was the essence of hundreds of prawn shell extract. Never have I encountered a more stimulating version of this soup. It is the one soup that is capable of making all bland tastes great!

Charcoal grilled prawn and deep fried fish fillet in soup
Image from Locky's English Playground

In addition to the incredibly mesmerizing soup was the charcoal grilled prawn. Too bad there weren't four or five of them in the bowl because one was less than my bare minimal requirement.

Deep fried fish fillet failed
Image from Locky's English Playground

The udon was almost perfect, except that this wonderfully golden deep fried fish fillet was only semi-cooked. Probably because the fillet was frozen before fried, so the centre had little time to reach maturity.

Beautifully fried fish fillet (second piece)
Image from Locky's English Playground

The chef cooked a second attempt for me without hesitation, but in spite of this, the second attempt yielded similar result. This confirms my prediction that the fillet had not been probably defrosted. The second piece did have a better bite as it was soaked in the soup, and maybe it should be served separately in the future.

Done
Image from Locky's English Playground

Overall, it was a great experience and I drank every last drop of the soup. The fish fillet though, I did not dare to consume.

Happy couple feeding
Image from Locky's English Playground

At over $120 a bowl, I would say once in every 3 months is about what we can afford, but if you can afford it, it is the one bowl of udon you will be impressed with every time you have.

Event & People: 2 Cool Ways to Take a Selfie with Elon Musk

Elon and I
Image from Locky's English Playground

You can either go meet him face-to-face,

Elon and I on SCMP
Image from SCMP

or, be placed on the same news article as he does, either way, what an honour!!!

Of course, the best is still getting an actual one side by side... pity... oh, that makes 3 cool ways and not 2 right? Whatever!



Resources:

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of Oct 2015

EV Growth in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground

According to data from the Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong, as of 31st October 2015, the total number of registered EV in Hong Kong is 3126, an increase of 352 since September. This has broken the record of 332 set in December 2014 by 30 more EVs. The total number of registered private EV is 2869, an increase of 355 since September. The percentage for total EV per new car is 12.87%. Mean is at 157.9 and Standard deviation at 90.2 since Tesla Model S launch.

Very encouraging numbers, but the best is yet to come.

Provisional number for the total number of registered EV is 3693 in November, and 4198 in December, an increase of 567 and 505 respectively from previous month.

If the final data is anywhere close to 500 then we could be seeing two or three record-breaking months in a row!!!

My conservative prediction of Tesla Model S contribution to the total number of EVs in Hong Kong has been upward adjusted from 70% to 75% since my last one*. This estimate already excludes the 340 EVs before Model S arrives in Hong Kong, with the assumption that the number of Tesla Roadster sold is negligible. That means as of today, the total number of Tesla Model S could have reached 3149.

(Updated 15 Feb 2016)
(*75% upward adjustment for December will be reverted to 70% due to Tesla Hong Kong's latest release of actual 2015 sales numbers of 2,221 on 25th Janurary 2016 at Tesla's Special Event in Hong Kong. As of 31 December 2015, the total number of Tesla Model S in Hong Kong could be 2,939.)


Having mentioned the above, the total number of registered vehicles in Hong Kong in October 2015 has reached 785,841, which means that EVs only constitutes 0.40% (=2869/785,841 x 100%) of the entire vehicle fleet in Hong Kong. Still, very very small group we are.

In terms of charging facilities, Chapter 8 : Internal Transport Facilities by the Planning Department of Hong Kong provides some interesting points, emphasis in bold.

Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities 7.2.7 The Government has been actively promoting the wider use of electric vehicles (EVs) in Hong Kong, with a view to improving road side air quality, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating green business opportunities.  As EVs are driven by electric power, they need regular charging to stay in operation. At present, most EVs can be charged by standard charging facilities (i.e. home electric sockets with 220V, 13A power sources).  The setting up of standard charging facilities at car parks basically involves electrical wiring and installation of socket outlets. 7.2.8 The provision of sufficient charging facilities in both private and public parking is crucial to the adoption and use of EVs. The Government’s longer term target is that as far as private cars are concerned, 30% are EVs or hybrid by 2020. On the assumption that the ratio of electric private cars to charging points should be at least one to one, EV standard charging facilities should be provided, where appropriate, in at least 30% of car parking spaces for private car in the following types or a mix of the following types of new developments - (a) car parks of residential developments; (b) car parks of commercial facilities; (c) car parks of industrial developments; and (d) car parks of business developments. 7.2.9 To cater for future increase in the number of EVs, all car parking spaces of new developments as outlined in para. 7.2.8 (a) to (d) should be EV charging enabling, the technical requirements of which are specified in the relevant technical guidelines issued by the Electrical and Mechanical Services Department. 7.2.10 Requirements in para. 7.2.8 - 7.2.9 do not apply to on-street parking spaces or outdoor car parks (with or without shelter). 7.2.11 The installation of charging facilities and electrical wiring works should be done in compliance with relevant legislations (i.e. the Electricity Ordinance (Cap. 406) and regulations made thereunder) and guidelines issued by the Environment Bureau and the Electrical and Mechanical Services Department from time to time.

One to one ratio and at least 30% of parking spaces have chargers? Great suggestions, but far from being achieved so far. On the EPD website, it still says,

There are now more than 1 200 EV chargers for public use including about 200 medium chargers in Hong Kong, covering all 18 districts in various types of buildings. 

With 4198 EVs on the road, not only does the Hong Kong Government need to upgrade 13A to medium and quick-chargers, but add enough to match their 'one-to-one' vision. In addition, the current problem is not simply a lack of EV charging stall, but a serious ICEing problem (i.e. Internal Combustion Engine vehicles occupying EV charging spots).

Eric Tang Chi-chung at Star Ferry car park.
Photo by Dickson Lee / SCMP

As long as the government car parks managed by the Transport Department of Hong Kong (namely Rumsey Street, Star Ferry, City Hall, Murray Road, Tin Hau, Shau Kei Wan, Yau Ma Tei, Sheung Fung Street and Tsuen Wan car parks) continue to refuse to issue fines to ICE offenders, the number of charging spots available for EV will be way less than 16.4% (52 coned charging spots out of a total of 317). Let hope the government departments are hearing voices from SCMP and our petition, otherwise, situation will only become worse and worse.

Tesla snake charger
Image from Tesla / The Verge

There are more areas that our Transport Department (TD) need to improve in order to earn back some lost fame for our beloved city. The lack of guts to accept creativity has already made Hong Kong an international joke when the Department forced Tesla to remove its autopilot functions from the car last November. TVB has also looked into this governmental repulsion of creativity in a recent news program. The trend now is that EV development is spearheading a revolution of innovation like never before, and creativity does not wait for legal approval. If TD decides to ostrich now, when fully autonomous cars arrives 24 and 36 months later, Hong Kong might be, "for the first time in forever", the only top-tier megacity not to have any fully autonomous cars on the planet.


(75% upward adjustment for December will be reverted to 70% due to Tesla Hong Kong's latest release of actual 2015 sales numbers of 2,221 on 25th Janurary 2016 at Tesla's Special Event in Hong Kong. As of 31 December 2015, the total number of Tesla Model S in Hong Kong could be 2,939.)


Resources:
Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015 @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/09/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html

Auto & Environment: Meeting Tesla Top Two Asia Pacific Referrers in Hong Kong @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/11/auto-environment-meeting-tesla-top-two.html

Chapter 8 : Internal Transport Facilities @Planning Department of Hong Kong
http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/tech_doc/hkpsg/full/ch8/ch8_text.htm#7

Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong @ Environmental Protection Department
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

CY policy address focuses on increased housing and poverty fight @SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1406023/live-cy-leung-gives-his-second-annual-policy-address

Hong Kong parking shock: Two-thirds of public charging outlets in car parks taken up by petrol vehicles @SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1891706/electric-shock-two-thirds-public-charging-outlets

Hong Kong must redouble efforts to encourage use of electric car @SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1895001/hong-kong-must-redouble-efforts-encourage-use-electric-car

Make EV-charging spot EV-only in Government-owned car parks in Hong Kong @Change.org
https://www.change.org/p/make-ev-charging-spot-ev-only-in-government-owned-car-parks-in-hong-kong

On the safe side: Tesla removes autopilot from Hong Kong cars to keep within law @SCMP
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/1880456/safe-side-tesla-removes-autopilot-hong-kong-cars-keep-within

2016.01.06 - 顛覆．創新 +TVB (official)
http://mytv.tvb.com/tc/cat_news/ed_localnews/newsmagazine/226591

Coast To Coast In A Tesla With No Driver Within 24 To 36 Months, Says Elon +Jalopnik
http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-a-tesla-should-drive-itself-coast-to-coa-1752108176

With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1905236/teslas-model-s-now-hong-kongs-top-selling-sedan-chief-elon-musk?page=all

Auto & Event: Charged Hong Kong 2015 Wrap Up feat. #ChargedHKRally2015

Charged Hong Kong Rally 2015 @HKSTP
Photo from SCMP

To combat climate change, we rallied through 2015.


One year ago, before Charged Hong Kong was founded, we organised a rally in the name of Tesla Motors Club Hong Kong and donated the proceeds to Hong Kong Shark Foundation. We had about 14 Tesla EVs participating. We made new friends and had tonnes of fun!

One year ago, before Charged Hong Kong was founded, we organised a rally in the name of Tesla Motors Club Hong Kong and...

Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Thursday, 5 November 2015

One year later, our Tesla Motors Club new friends became founders and members of Hong Kong's very first electric vehicle non-profit non-government organisation (NGO) receiving the charity status in January 2015 in order to promote clean air through EV adapation.

Cyberport replied with great news!
Image from Locky's English Playground

Together with the help of friends from around the globe, we brought the lack of EV protection to Cyberport car park management's attention in July. Ever since relevant protection policy had been implemented, Cyberport has become a role model in EV-protection for shopping malls in Hong Kong, one that the Government's car park management ought to follow.

Drive Electric Week  coverage by Car Plus magazine

In September, we organised Hong Kong's first ever Drive Electric Week with great success and have received international coverage as well as coverage from Cathay Pacific's magazine.

Charged Hong Kong Secretary Kåre Core Lohse appears on Cathay Pacific employee magazine (November 2015) following a...
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Friday, 11 December 2015

Summary of the FIA Formula E Hong Kong Press Conference yesterday
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Friday, 9 October 2015

Charged Hong Kong were invited to FIA Formula E Hong Kong press conference in October and we Periscoped the event live online. The EV race will be held on 9th Oct 2016.

Charged Hong Kong chairman Mark Webb-Johnson and Tesla Motors Group Representative Locky Law talk about Tesla's Firmware...
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Monday, 26 October 2015

Later that month, I was invited by South China Morning Post to demonstrate the power of Tesla's new 'Autopilot' in the firmware v7.0 on my Model S which includes a very nice video showing how the new function SHOULD be used properly while following all instructions given in the manual.

The report was on the front page the day after and the world gets to see 'Charged Hong Kong' on paper and the Internet.

Charged Hong Kong made the front page on SCMP today. Have you got a copy? #ChargedHongKong #Tesla #EV #HongKong #Autopilot
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Tuesday, 27 October 2015

The article drew attention from even more media sources and Charged Hong Kong were invited to appear on local television's news program,

Charged Hong Kong's Committee Member Kristy Lau was on TVB's「時事多面睇」talking about EV development in Hong Kong! Missed...
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Tuesday, 24 November 2015

and more news article.

Charged Hong Kong member Eric Tang is on SCMP today as he draws attention to the ICE issue at government-owned car...
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Charged Hong Kong Rally 2015 +Hotel ICON
Image by Kevin

For the grand finale of the year, to show our support for The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21), we have Charged Hong Kong Rally 2015. With over 60 participants and over 30 Tesla EVs, we began our rally with a fine breakfast gathering at Hotel ICON, 2015 Tripadvisor Travellers' Choice and EV pioneer for hotels in Hong Kong.

We then set off to Hong Kong Science and Technology Park on our Eco-Drive competition, in which the most energy-efficient EV wins. Grand prizes sponsored by RevoZport, Pomponazzi, XiaoMaGe and G. Guard Hong Kong were awarded to lucky draw and competition winners. Our EVs were then on display at the Park where visitors were welcome to ask our owners questions and experience the feeling while sitting inside the EVs.

After lunch, several EVs participated in the optional afternoon drive to Clearwater Bay Golf and Country Club for the beautiful sunset and fresh air, thanks to our zero emission EVs.

Our rally has made the news on South China Morning Post, which we hope is the first of many in the years to come. (Missed the event? See all photos here: https://goo.gl/photos/x9gSMTi9zVEV9rjv5)

Charged Hong Kong had a productive meeting with LegCo member Hon Tony Tse Wai-chuen tonight to discuss Hong Kong's EV...
Posted by Charged Hong Kong on Monday, 14 December 2015

Last but not least, in December, Charged Hong Kong set up a Public Charging Working Group to specifically to bridge communication between EV owners and policy makers as well as to facilitate the development of charging infrastructure in Hong Kong from the owners' perspective. So far, we have met with LegCo members Hon Kenneth Leung and Hon Tony Tse Wai-chuen. Progress has been good and we are arranging similar meetings in 2016.

This year has been a fruitful year for Charged Hong Kong, it is hoped that we will achieve even more in 2016.


Resources:
Auto & Event: Tesla Rally Hong Kong 2014 & Shark Conservation @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/01/auto-event-tesla-rally-hong-kong-2014.html

Who we are +Charged Hong Kong
http://www.charged.hk/?q=whoweare

Auto & Opinions: Hong Kong's EV Development feat. The Issue of ICE Vehicles Occupying Charging Spots @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/07/auto-opinions-hong-kongs-ev-development.html

Hong Kong parking shock: Two-thirds of public charging outlets in car parks taken up by petrol vehicles @South China Morning Post
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1891706/electric-shock-two-thirds-public-charging-outlet

Drive Electric Week Opens in Hong Kong This Past Weekend @InsideEVs
http://insideevs.com/drive-electric-week-opens-hong-kong-past-weekend/
x
2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference +Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

Electric cars on the rise in Hong Kong but building management are failing to plug a home-charging gap @South China Morning Post
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1885096/electric-cars-rise-hong-kong-building-management

Hotel ICON
http://www.hotel-icon.com/home.aspx#/our-story

Charged Hong Kong Rally 2015 @Google Photos
https://goo.gl/photos/x9gSMTi9zVEV9rjv5

Can Tesla's new 'autopilot' system work in crowded Hong Kong? We take it for a test drive +YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xiih665-28Q

https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/442820895923596
https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/442816895923996
https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/442358169303202
https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/437769023095450
https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/434761406729545
https://www.facebook.com/chargedhongkong/posts/445893525616333

Auto & Environment: Meeting Tesla Top Two Asia Pacific Referrers in Hong Kong

Meet up with top two Tesla referrers of Asia Pacific, Raymond Wu (right) and Frank Lee (left)
Image from Locky's English Playground

Charged Hong Kong Tesla Motors Group Representative Locky Law enjoyed a special meetup with the top two Asia Pacific referrers of the first round of Tesla Model S Referral Program (ended on October 31st) today at Tesla Motors' Service Centre at TML Tower, Tsuen Wan. Raymond Wu (right) and Frank Lee (left) contributed a total of 164 referrals in Hong Kong alone. Given that the average CO2 saved per Model S is 6 tonnes per year, 164 new Model S can be translated to 984 (=164 x 6) tonnes CO2 saved / year, a remarkable achievement and a big helping hand for the government in cutting emission from vehicles and economic loss.

Lambswool Blanket
Image from Tesla Motors

In addition to their achievement, the two young Model S owners have also agreed to donate part of their referral credits for a good cause. Initiated and organised by Locky Law and supported by Tesla Motors Hong Kong, referrers can donate their extra referral credits in exchange for lambswool blankets for the needy.

Details of the donation plan will be announced in the near future, follow Locky's English Playground blog, Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and YouTube for more updates.



Resources:

Tesla Top Referrer In Asia Adds 86 New EVs On The Road @InsideEVs
http://insideevs.com/tesla-top-referrer-asia-adds-86-new-evs-road/

Air @ Environmental Protection Department
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/air_maincontent.html

Hedley Environmental Index
http://hedleyindex.sph.hku.hk/html/tc/index.php

Tesla Motors Hong Kong
http://www.teslamotors.com/en_HK/?redirect=no